Good evening ladies and gents. I’m sure that there were some people today that felt rather melancholic walking into a fresh week of work, but while each Monday brings a start to a new week, it also brings a brand new betting recap for the NFL’s past slate of games.
If you are new to A2Z Sports, you should know that I have been making picks for the spread and point totals for every game this NFL season. After the first two weeks of the season, I was 31-32-2, and after this week’s slate, I am now 49-46-3 on the year. As a reminder, these were my picks for this week:
Now, keeping those picks in mind, let’s dive into what were some of the biggest upsets, worst beats, and surest picks of the week:
CARDINALS MARCH INTO DALLAS AND STUN THE COWBOYS 28-16
The Cowboys were many people’s top team in the league after their first two matchups. Their defense was off to a record setting start with seven turnovers in two games, and their offense had put up the most points out of any team through the first two weeks.
The Cardinals were nearly everybody’s pick for the worst team in the league. They have the fewest number of weapons on both sides of the ball, and it seemed like a surefire bet that they’d tank for Caleb Williams. That was, until they miraculously strutted into Jerry World and pulled out a win.
This was not an ordinary loss for the Cowboys either. Normally, Dak fails to rise to the occasion, and the offense ends up choking the game away, but the opposite was true yesterday afternoon. The defense that everyone crowned king crumbled under Josh Dobbs’ prowess; forcing zero turnovers and having their smallest sack count of the year (2). James Conner and Rondale Moore had a rushing touchdown a piece, which allows me to present offseason’s cringiest video one more time:
As bad as Arizona’s head coach Jonathan Gannon looked in that video, he made me look worse after I picked the Cowboys to cover by 12.5. To make it even more unpleasant, the over didn’t hit either, meaning that I missed both of my bets for this game.
The Cardinals’ win changes the whole landscape of the league this season. As I mentioned in my power rankings article last week, there is a race to tank for Caleb Williams, and this win for Arizona might just put them out of the running for the first overall pick. I’m gonna keep it short today, but I’ll talk more on this in an article later this week.
49ERS AND CHARGERS CARRY MY MORTAL LOCK RECORD TO 5-2
Heading into this week, I was 2-2 on Mortal Lock picks, and I was very ashamed of that. Thankfully, the Niners and Chargers pulled through, making my record a little more respectable.
Exactly as I predicted, the Niners manhandled the Giants on Thursday Night Football. It was shocking to me that the spread for that game was only 10.5 when the Chiefs and Cowboys were given 12.5 in each of their matchups. Sure, the Niners were going up against a more formidable defense in New York, but San Fran’s offense is far and above the best in the league, and in my opinion their defense is only second to Dallas (they may take first after the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals). This was a recipe for a blowout, and I’m shocked more people didn’t jump on the line as soon as it was released.
As for the Chargers and their win over the Vikings, it seemed like an obvious pick to take the Chargers moneyline, yet the Vikings were favored by a point and a half going into the game. So, like any smart man would, I made the spread and moneyline a Mortal Lock.
I gave my thoughts on the Vikings team in my power rankings last week, and my Minnesotan roommates certainly weren’t happy with me after I put them at 24, but I think that this game perfectly defended my opinion. Their play calling is terrible, they have holes everywhere on their offensive line, and their defense is one of the worst in the league. At a few points in the game, I was convinced that they were trying to lose. I simply don’t see the team staying the way it is, so I predict that they’ll look into moving Kirk before the end of the season.
DOLPHINS KILL BRONCOS 70-20
Under 47.5 for this game was undeniably my worst bet of the week. I am not sure what I was thinking, but whatever it was I couldn’t have been more wrong. Not only did the over hit by the end of the first half; not only did the Dolphins cover the point total on their own, but the combined score was nearly double what the total was set at. 70 points is the third most points ever put up in an NFL game, yet I bet the under. I feel like I should get a plaque that says “on September 24th, when the Dolphins massacred the Broncos 70-20, Aidan bet the under” as a punishment. This bet was that awful.
Just a bad look for me, but I promise this will be the most I miss by all year.
BENGALS SPREAD PUSHES LAST MINUTE
This bad beat happened while I was writing this article. I took Cincinnati -3, but LA just scored which makes the final score 19-16, meaning the bet pushes. While normally this isn’t the worst beat in the world (a push is far better than a loss), this L took my net units gained from +0.17 to -0.75, meaning that I’ll be heading into next week with ground to make up.
If you were wondering how I calculate all of my bets, here is a screenshot of the spreadsheet I’m using throughout the entire semester:
And that’ll do it for today! As always, let us hear your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter/X @A2ZSportsTakes, and check back in each day of the week for more content!