Week six of the NFL season has passed, and oh boy what a week it was for gambling. The final two remaining undefeated teams lost outright, only three overs hit out of 15(!) games, and bad beats were getting dished out like MIPs in a freshman dorm.
If you are new to my weekly betting recaps, you should know that I’ve been making picks on the spreads and point totals for every game of this NFL season. Heading into this week, I was a subpar 79-82-3 after a 13-20 massacre in week five. This week, I was looking to bounce back and get myself above .500 once more, and after a solid 17-13 performance, I did just that. As a reminder, here were my picks for the week:
Now, without further adieu, let’s dive into where I went right, where I went wrong, and how I can improve going forward.
HOT START WITH CHIEFS COVERING AND THE UNDER SLAPPING ON TNF
In week five I got off to a demoralizing 0-2 start, and I swore that I wouldn’t dig myself in a hole like that ever again. For this week’s TNF matchup, I thought that the under was a rock solid pick, but the 10.5 spread was extremely questionable to me. In a gametime decision, I sided with the Chiefs, because who in their sane mind would place their mental wellbeing in the hands of Russel Wilson and the Broncos. In the end, the Chiefs covered by 0.5 points and started this week’s slate off with a bang.
49ers + EAGLES BLOW THEIR UNDEFEATED RECORDS AGAINST THE BROWNS + JETS
If you were to tell me before Sunday’s games kicked off that the Browns would beat the Niners and the Jets would win against the Eagles, I might’ve laughed in your face. Both teams had looked so solid leading up to this point, and the Jets and Browns hadn’t shown anything so far this season that demanded my respect. Cleveland and New York were also missing their best players in Chubb (Watson was also out) and Rodgers, and with both offenses struggling throughout the first five games, I thought that there was no way they’d be able to emerge victorious over the league’s two top defenses.
To be fair, San Fran lost their offense’s three best players after CMC, Deebo, and Trent Brown all exited the game due to injuries. It’s understandable that they were unprepared for the situation, and because of that, Brock Purdy received his first loss as a starter and the Niners their first of the season.
Well, it should be mentioned that Purdy and the Niners could’ve kept their undefeated streaks if Jake Moody could just do his one singular job:
What a feeling it must’ve been for Browns betters seeing that ball veer right.
The loss for the Eagles, on the other hand, was unacceptable. There is no excuse that would justify their failure, and to make matters worse, the Jets had never beaten the Eagles in the history of their franchise. Philly had a perfect 12-0 record over New York, but then Zach Wilson had to go and ruin everything. Head coach Robert Saleh made sure this was known as he walked away from the press conference on Sunday afternoon:
It might just be me, but I don’t think that there is any worse feeling in sports betting than picking a heavily favored spread and then watching as that team loses outright. I took the spread in favor of the Eagles and Niners, and it was soul crushing to know my picks were so far off. Sure, last second bad beats can make you want to blow your brains out too, but at least you have someone to blame most of the time. A ref makes a bad call, a kicker misses a field goal, a receiver laterals the ball directly to the opposing team, the list goes on and on, yet you never seem to run out of people to blame your losses on. In these games’ cases on the other hand, there’s really nobody you can blame but yourself. My picks weren’t just off, they were way off. Embarrassingly off. But, we live, we learn, and we will come back smarter next time.
THE PATRIOTS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
In last week’s recap, I stated that I was hesitant to take the Pats’ spread in the future, yet I still did this week, and it crashed and burned laughably hard. The spread was +3, we were down two, and we had the ball with a little over one minute remaining on the clock. I think that the football gods were punishing me for hoping Mac and the boys would be able to storm down the field and win us the game, so instead, Mac was sacked for a loss of five yards and a safety.
This put the Raiders up four and sealed the game, toasting Pats’ +3 spread bets instantly. If you thought I was joking when I said in last week’s article that we had one of the worst O-lines in the entire NFL, you’re probably swallowing your words now.
I keep telling myself that I should bet against the Pats week after week, but I feel like as soon as I do that, they are going to turn around and cover just to spite me. Because of this, I might just bet in favor of them for the remainder of the season in hopes that we lose every game and tank for Marvin Harrison Jr. It’s a small sacrifice, but it’s one I’m willing to make.
That’ll do it for today’s article, let me know your worst beats and best locks for next week’s slate in the comments below, and I’ll see you friday!