After a week off, we’re back with our NFL betting recap, which means we’ve got two weeks to cover, so I’ll keep this intro short and only touch on a few things for each week. If you’re new here, I have been making picks on the spreads and point totals (with occasional money lines for underdogs) for every game this NFL season. Currently, I have made 369 picks, and my overall record stands at 189-174-6. Now, without further adieu, let’s get right into it, starting with week 11.
WEEK 11 BETTING RECAP
Here were my picks:
Heading into week 11, my record stood at 158-146-6, and my net units gained tallied up to +0.39. I was walking a tightrope between a profitable hobby or a costly habit, so a stellar week was needed to boost my confidence in my chosen pastime.
A stellar week it was not.
In total, I went 13-16, netting -4.17 units, and bringing my overall gains/losses to -3.78 units. Not great, especially when the week started off with one of my worst beats of the year:
What you can’t see in that screenshot is the amount I placed on the bet, which was actually a $50 free bet from ESPN BET’s startup promotion. To save you from doing the math, if the Bengal’s alternate spread of +7.5 would’ve hit, I would have profited $2,068.5. That would’ve been quite nice for an unemployed college student.
Now, why was this a bad beat? Great question. Joe Burrow was knocked out of the game and the rest of the season with an injury to his throwing hand in the second quarter. This is a bad enough beat in normal situations, but where it became a horrendous beat is when this video circulated on socials after the game:
Burrow was not listed on the injury report prior to the game, meaning bettors like myself had no idea that he wasn’t 100% healthy. You can even see him favoring his nondominant hand when he bends down to pick up his suitcase. Something was clearly up with his hand/wrist prior to the heavyweight matchup against Baltimore, and if I had known about the injury, I would’ve been especially hesitant to bet on Cincy. The worst part is, ESPN BET didn’t refund any bets from the game, which probably hurts them in the long run since customers like myself will never come back.
Oh, and ESPN BET also does this:
Moving on, another week 11 game that I want to talk about is the Chiefs and Eagles matchup on Monday Night Football. As it should have, the game went down to the wire, and with a chance to go up with less than two minutes left in the game, Mahomes unleashed a deep bomb. Only problem was, he targeted Marquez Valdez-Scantling:
I despise Chiefs fans more than any other fanbase in the NFL, but after all of our receiver troubles on the Patriots, I couldn’t help but feel for them a bit on that play. Truly a crushing drop for Chiefs bettors and fans alike.
Now, let’s talk about week 12.
WEEK 12 BETTING RECAP
After taking on water in week 11, I needed to patch up the boat and get back on course to positive units gained. As I stated previously, I lost 4.17 units in week 11, bringing my overall winnings to -3.78, but as seen many times this season, if I know one thing, it’s how to respond.
If you didn’t see them, these were my selections:
My picks ended up going 18-12, netting me +4.35 units, and bringing my overall profits to +0.53 units. Basically, if you’re looking for a get rich quick scheme, just follow @A2ZSportsTakes on Twitter/X and tail everything.
My biggest winner of week 12: Bills +3.5
The Eagles-Bills matchup was one of the better games of the 2023 NFL season. From classic yucky Philly weather at Lincoln Financial, to a 59 yard bomb of a kick to send it to OT, to the spread cashing by half of a point, it had everything I wanted in a prime time game.
Wait, what was that? This game wasn’t on Sunday night, and instead of this elite matchup, the Vikings played the Bears on Monday Night Football? I know that AWS is supposed to be all smart and all with their statistics, but when it comes to schedule making, they really blow chunks. It seems like every week we have a battle of mid commencing during at least one of the primetime games, and there’s always a better option (like this Eagles vs Bills game) that the NFL could’ve flexed into that time slot, but chose not to. In my opinion, primetime games should only be given to the best matchups of the week. I have no clue how teams like my New England Patriots landed not one, not two, not three, but FOUR primetime games this season. We shouldn’t have gotten a single one!
Now, speaking on my Patriots, they continue to be my biggest loser of the season. I was roped into taking their spread again in the toilet bowl matchup up the year against the Giants, and they let me down once more. Good news is though, our predicted draft position is the highest I have seen in my entire lifetime, and the top three picks in next years’ draft are all elite. I’m going to bet the Pats’ spread for the rest of the year knowing that they’ll let me down each week, all in hopes that we will draft “Maserati” Marvin Harrison Jr.
This is all a fantastical imagination, but looking at it from a realist’s perspective, Belichick will trade out of the top three for six second rounders without a second thought.
That’s all for today, check back in tomorrow for my picks on the week 13 NFL slate, and see you Monday for a look at the College Football Playoff bracket!