Greetings, A2Z Sports reader! The fifth week of the NFL has passed, which means it’s time for another betting recap.
If you’re unfamiliar with my blogs, I have been making picks on the spread and point totals for every NFL game this season, while also making the occasional moneyline picks for underdogs that I believe can pull off a win. Heading into Thursday, I was 66-62-3 on the year, with my best week being week one where I went 21-11-1 on my selections.
This week, however, was not like week one. This week was terrible for my record. Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football bookended my poor performance, with my picks going 0-5 combined between those two games, and there weren’t many highlights in between. There was only one game (Eagles vs Rams) where I went 2-0 on my picks, while there were four games where I went 0-2 or worse. So, let’s dive into where I went wrong, what teams are to blame, and how I’ll be better in week six.
JUSTIN FIELDS AND THE BEARS GET THEIR FIRST WIN OVER THE COMMANDERS
This Thursday Night Football matchup was a snoozefest to say the least. Well, let me rephrase that; there were a lot of points, but it was boring because I was excited to see Justin Fields throw three interceptions (he didn’t even throw one), the game was basically decided in the first half (the Commanders didn’t show up to play), and all of my bets missed almost instantly (Justin Fields didn’t throw any interceptions and the Commanders didn’t show up to play).
I went into this game thinking that the Commanders’ above average defense was going to be able to hold off the Bears with ease, and that the Commanders’ subpar offense would struggle to put points on the board, but since they were playing the Bears, they’d still find a way somehow. Because of this, I took Washington’s -6.5 spread and the under, which both missed by a country mile.
People are saying that the Bears are back, but I don’t believe that one bit. I think that their win can be attributed to the Commanders thinking they’d be able to pull out an easy W, combined with Fields playing with the largest chip his shoulder has ever held. Also, I don’t see DJ Moore putting up another eight reception, 230 yard, three touchdown game any time soon, so I would be hesitant in taking the over in their next few games.
As for their spread next week, they are playing the Vikings, so anything can happen really. I’ll be making picks for that game, but I would steer wildly clear if I were you.
JAGUARS TRUMP (OR SHALL I SAY BORIS JOHNSON) BILLS IN LONDON TOWN
I was thinking about making this game my lock of the week, but after last week’s Chiefs vs Jets fiasco, I decided not to. Instead, I took the Jags’ moneyline, and it ended up being my most profitable pick of the weekend.
I was shocked to see that the spread was as high as 5.5 going into the game. I think that people severely underestimated the advantage that the Jags had when they stayed two weeks in London, while the Bills flew in just two days prior to the match. Pardon my french, but jet lag is a bitch, and no matter how good Josh Allen is, there was simply no way he or any of the other Bills wouldn’t be affected by it. As they say, there are three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and people getting bodied for days by 9+ hour flights.
Also, in case you’ve forgotten, this guy Travis Etienne is a monster:
MY PATRIOTS GOT WALLOPED FOR THE SECOND WEEK STRAIGHT, THIS TIME AGAINST THE SAINTS
I don’t know why I took the Pats’ spread and moneyline. I guess my past experiences with the Patriots brainwashed me into thinking that we’d bounce back from last week’s worst loss of my lifetime, but in hindsight, that sentence completely contradicts itself. We had never lost by more than we did against the Cowboys, yet for some reason I still believed deep down that we were a good team. Needless to say, those beliefs are gone now.
I hadn’t seen this before I made my picks, but even the Source, Stu Fiener, made the Patriots the lock “of [his] existence”:
Rarely do I not take the Pats’ spread in my picks. It’s truly the one circumstance where I bet with bias, but to come to my own defense, it has netted me hundreds of dollars throughout my betting career. However, after the past two weeks’ brutal losses, I am hesitant to bet on our spread for the rest of the season, and here’s why:
A NOTE ON THE PATRIOTS’ FUTURE
If you are wondering if the losses get any easier, I can tell you that they don’t. Yes, I know that my childhood was spoiled rotten with championships, but have some sympathy for once. The situation with the Patriots, specifically with Bill Belichick, is like watching your dog get old. You had countless good times together. You refuse to believe that there could ever be a better dog/coach to have. Then, you see them start to lose their step, yet you vehemently deny the irrefutable evidence, and in the back of your mind all you can think of is the past glory days and the dark future that lies ahead without them.
Wow, that got incredibly dark. You get the point though.
With Judon and Gonzales likely out for the year and our offseason decisions (Juju’ signing in particular) looking like the worst choices in franchise history, our season is in the gutter and far past hopes of recovery.
Now, I won’t go as far to say that we should tank for Caleb Williams. That’s a quitters mentality, and quitters never win. Personally (I have voiced this opinion many times), I think that Mac Jones is a good quarterback that’s surrounded by the worst supporting cast in football. No receiver corps is inferior to ours, and our O-line is straight up laughable. I am convinced that if you threw Mac into the Niners offense in place of Brock Purdy, he’d be a frontrunner for MVP at the moment. We have quite literally given him nothing to work with, yet people still bash him like he’s the source of the problem.
I obviously hope that we continue trying to win every game this season, but knowing that we are not good enough to win many fills me with a newfound excitement of what draft pick we’ll land. Only once in my entire life have we had a top 10 pick in the draft (that pick being Jerod Mayo in ‘08), and with the talented class coming out this year, I am juiced to see who we’ll select.
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts, bad beats, best bets, and any take you have in the comments or on Twitter/X @A2ZSportsTakes. See you Friday!