Week four of the NFL season has passed, and along with it went a slew of poor games, a few great ones, and some really my worst beat of my career (more on this later). If you are new here, you should know that I have been making picks for every spread and point total for each NFL game this season. Heading into this week, I was barely staying afloat at 49-46-3. After Monday night’s stinker of a game concluded, I showed slight improvement with a 66-62-3 record, and if not for a few tough breaks, I could’ve easily been in the 70 win club. So, without further adieu, let’s dive into some of the high and lowlights of this past week’s slate, and how they affected my record:
STARTING OFF 2-0 WITH TOY STORY FOOTBALL
I had a great 6:45 am wakeup on Sunday to the tune of the Ryder Cup and London’s first NFL bout of the season, which was hysterically broadcasted on Disney Plus and animated into the Toy Story universe. The matchup between the Jaguars and the Falcons had everything from Slinky Dog as the first down markers to a sweet halftime show from Duke Caboom, and I was locked in for every minute of it. What made this early morning even better were my picks (Jags -3 and Under 43.5 points) going 2-0 to start off my Sunday slate with a bang.
BILLS SON THE DOLPHINS 48-20
This was the most hyped matchup going into last week’s slate, and understandably so. It featured two of the league’s best quarterbacks, one of which has been in the top three position-wise for a few years now, and the other who’s having a mind blowing season down in Miami. Unfortunately for me, I bought into the Tua, Tyreek, and Dolphins hype and picked the wrong team to come out on top. Not only did I pick the Miami +3 spread, but I also took the Dolphins to win outright at +124. What’s worst is, this pick went directly against my power rankings from week three, where I put the Bills at #4 and the Dolphins at #7. Not a great look, but hey, we live and we learn.
BEARS BLOW A THREE TOUCHDOWN LEAD, YET STILL MANAGE TO COVER
A wise man once said that “good teams win, but great teams cover”, and that’s exactly what the Bears did on Sunday. Now, in no way shape or form am I calling Chicago a great football team, but they did cover the +3.5 spread (which I did not pick), so I have to give them credit for that. What they do seem great at, however, is tanking the season away in order to land the first overall pick. If the season finished right now, the Bears would have the first two overall picks in the 2024 draft (theirs, and the Panthers first rounder from their trade last season), enabling them to pick Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. back-to-back. If I were a Bears fan, I’d be praying for a loss each game in order for that fantasy to become a reality.
PATRIOTS LET ME DOWN, GET BLOWN OUT BY THE COWBOYS 3-38
This week, as I do most weeks, I made a biased decision and took the Pats’ +6.5 spread against Dallas, and needless to say, it didn’t work out. Now, before you go shitting on my picks and my brain for not being smarter, I did factor some knowledge into my bets for this game. I thought, “If the Patriots are going to keep this game close and cover, they’d have to put a lot of points on the board”. This genius thought process led me to take the over at 43.5, and once again, that didn’t work out. Now, I can’t promise that I won’t take the Pats’ spread next week, but I can promise that I will take the Pats’ spread next week. You know what they say: 60% of the time, New England covers the spread every time (this reference doesn’t really work here, but my roommate is watching Anchorman, so I had to throw a line in here).
AND LASTLY, THE WORST BEAT OF THE SEASON AND POSSIBLY MY CAREER
If you don’t keep up with my blogs, you’re likely unaware of my post on Friday where I made the Chiefs’ -8.5 (which later was shifted to -7.5) A2Z Sports’ first ever “ABUS Titalium Aluminum Alloy Padlock Lock of Your Lifetime” (named after the best lock in the world, of course). This pick looked like the surest bet of my lifetime. I thought that even if some major bullshit went along with Mahomes having his worst game ever while Zach Wilson had his best, the Chiefs would still win by at least 10. Little did I know, Mahomes would go on to have irrefutably the worst game of his life with two INTs and a passer rating of 63.6, and he’d be the one to selfishly/unselfishly (I’m still not sure) be the one to blow the over at the final second for no reason at all. If you hadn’t seen it, just watch this final play and tell me that Chiefs -7.5 isn’t the worst beat you’ve ever seen:
I mean are you fucking kidding me with that??? The play is infuriating enough, but then to have the audacity to celebrate in my face after dismantling my first ever “ABUS Titalium Aluminum Alloy Padlock Lock of Your Lifetime” is enough to kickstart my villain arc.
I thought I hated the Chiefs before this, but after that sequence the hatred has reached a completely new level. That being said, they are still the hardest team to bet against in the entire NFL, so don’t expect me to bet with bias on their future games (I never bet with bias).
Phew…I feel at least a little better now. With that note though, today’s blog has reached its conclusion. As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts, bad beats, best bets, and any take you have in the comments or on Twitter/X @A2ZSportsTakes. Also, stay tuned for mine and Dins’ picks for tomorrow night’s electrifying TNF matchup between the Bears and the Commanders. See you then!