Oh, brother. The NFL’s second week has just concluded, and boy was it a tough one for my picks. If you are new to the blog, let me explain to you how this works. I am forcing myself to make picks for the spread and point totals of every game this NFL season, while also picking moneylines for underdogs that I think will win. Last week, I started off the season a scorching 21-11-1 (+9.05 units), but I also said in last Monday’s article that “there will be good weeks, and there will be bad weeks”. This week was one of the bad ones. A really, really bad one.
These were my picks for the week:
10-21-1. I went 10-21-1 and completely blew through any cushion I had built up during week one. I’ll spare you the math; my record is now 31-32-2, netting me -2.89 units overall.
I am not going to make excuses for my slump, but I will say this: All of my picks were made the morning after my Colorado Buffaloes beat CSU in overtime, and needless to say, my brain was mush after a long night out. So mush in fact that I thought the games started at 10am, so I woke up off of five hours of sleep to get my picks in before what I thought was the kickoff time, only to find out after I posted my Tweet that the games wouldn’t start for another hour (like they always do).
But, I will not put an asterisk next to this week. My picks are my picks, whether I made them with a clear head or not. That being said, let’s dive into some of the bad beats from the week and how they affected my record:
VIKINGS @ EAGLES , 28-34
I hit on the over for this game, but the spread was squashed for me in the final minutes. The brutal part about it was that the spread I took was -6.5, and the closing spread was -5.5, which would’ve cashed. Hockenson’s garbage-time last second TD did nothing for the over, but ruined the spread for no reason at all. This bad beat really set the tone for the weekend, and it was all downhill from there. I missed the next five spread picks in a row, and overall I went 3-12-1 on the spread for the week. YUCK.
BEARS @ BUCCANEERS, 17-27
This wasn’t a bad beat, the Bears just stink and I fell for the “Justin Fields for MVP” trap. Fields made so many bad plays on Sunday that I thought it was a joke at one point. I would say that you could count me out on betting the Bears to cover for the rest of the season, but I know that as soon as I bet them not to, they’ll cover just to spite me. So, my pride will force me to ride the Fields train til the wheels fall off, meaning Chicago will likely hurt my record more than any other team this season. As of now, they are given 13 points for their matchup against the Chiefs next week, and you bet your sweet ass I’m taking all 13 of ‘em.
49ERS @ RAMS, 30-23
If my brain wasn’t mush on Sunday morning, I would’ve made the over in this game a Mortal Lock. I thought that it was the most automatic bet of the day, and turns out, I was right. Where I went wrong was the spread, which got toasted on a last second, meaningless field goal from Sean McVay and the Rams. There was absolutely zero reason to kick a field goal as time ran out, yet they still did. Someone better launch an investigation into the Rams’ locker room for breaking the NFL’s strict gambling policy, because somebody had to have had money on this game.
JETS @ COWBOYS, 10-30
This was my worst bet of the day. I don’t know what part of me was thinking that Zach Wilson and the Jets were going to be able to put points on the board against the Micah Parsons led Cowboys defense. Parsons is gamewrecking by himself, but then when you factor in the surrounding cast that includes Demarcus Lawrence, Stephon Gilmore, Trevon Diggs and more, the Jets just never stood a chance. My pick of Jets +8.5 should almost be considered a reputation ruiner. Almost.
DOLPHINS @ PATRIOTS, 24-17
I know I’m a homer, but the end to that game sucked. Mike Gesicki made a great heads up play by latteralling the ball to Cole Strange, who made a phenomenal attempt to break the first down line, only for all efforts to be dismissed by some clowns in striped shirts. If the Pats had gotten that first down and put another score in, the over would’ve hit, and who knows what would’ve happened with the spread in OT. I’m sure that Jack will touch on this in his article tomorrow, so I’ll leave it at that.
And that does it for week two. Next week I’ll bounce back, I promise. Follow us on twitter @A2ZSportsTakes to see next week’s picks, and as always, let us know your thoughts in the comments!